Research Base for Future Design

　This is the first practice conducted with the support from JST RISTEX (PI: Keishiro Hara), in which Future Design was applied to decision-making in the real world. In this practice, participating citizens were divided into two groups: a ‘Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs)’ group representing the year 2060 and a ‘current generation’ group. They first discussed regional revitalization plans separately, and then paired up with each other to reach consensus and negotiate. This practice revealed that the decision-making criteria and social change incentives of the IFGs group were different from those of the current generation group. This case is the first practice where decision-making for social problem solving and vision creation was carried out by adopting IFGs, a stakeholder of future generations. It has been featured not only in domestic media but also in foreign newspapers such as BBC and Washington Post. After these practicec of Future Design, Yahaba Town established a "Future Strategy Section" with the role of implementing Future Design in policy making, and has begun new initiatives such as an assessment of policy making (e.g., urban planning) from the perspective of future generations.

　In this practice, all participants experienced both the positions and perspectives of the current generation and the Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs), and then adopted a method to achieve long-term decision-making by making final decisions. This method is also applied in many Future Design practices. Specifically, in the first time, everyone considered and decided on measures for public facility management and municipal housing plans from the perspective of the current generation, in the second time, they considered and decided on the same content as IFGs, and in the third time, they could choose either perspective, but they made a final decision by explicitly stating the reasons for their decision and advice to future generations. This is a three-step method. From this practice, it has become clear that many participants have formed a higher perspective that shares both the perspectives of the current generation and future generations (viewpoint sharing).
　In Yahaba Town, after experiencing Future Design practices in 2015 and 2017, Future Design with citizen participation was applied to the formulation of the “comprehensive plan”, which is the main administrative plan of the town, in 2019.

　In Suita City, future design was implemented with citizen participation on vision creation for 2050 and introduction of renewable energy. In this practice, a new methodology that combines backcasting and Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs), which is the central methods of future design, was applied. As a result of discussions and decision-making using this method, four future society visions related to the diffusion of renewable energy in Suita City were described. In addition, a mechanism that can calculate CO2 emissions quantitatively according to the depicted social image was also introduced.

　A Future Design practice was conducted by young staff members who examined the business reform of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, with themes such as work style reform and business improvement. Based on current policy issues and evaluation analysis of past policies, measures to be taken from now on were discussed from both perspectives of the current generation and Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs).

　In this practice, Future Design was applied to the discussion for formulating the city’s third basic environmental plan. Citizens selected by public recruitment and city hall staff formed six groups and discussed four times. The “social image of Suita City in 2050” and “policy options to be adopted in the future” were examined from both perspectives of the current generation and Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs), and each group made final policy proposals and policy evaluations. The ideas and ways of thinking raised in this practice are also referred to in the city’s plan formulation.
　In addition, from the data obtained from this practice, it was suggested that by introducing a mechanism of virtual future generation, cognition such as “a sense of crisis about the future” and “a shared recognition of goals that are desirable for society as a whole” may increase regardless of individual characteristics such as Critical Thinking."

　In this practice, 25 city employees, selected from an open competition, worked as a team to conduct five sessions of Future Design for Policy Design with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality in Kyoto City in 2050. From the perspective of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs), city employees proposed and selected a vision of a carbon-neutral Kyoto City in 2050 and measures that should be implemented by 2030. In this practice, a "Causal Loop diagram" was used to systematically understand the relationships among the various elements and measures that make up the vision of society in 2050. Some of the images of society in 2050 created through this practice are also reflected in the administrative plan.

　Sustainable maintenance and management of social infrastructure, including water supply and sewage systems, is an important and urgent issue for the national and local governments. The Suita City Waterworks Department, with the participation of its employees, undertook a future design project to envision the state of the city's waterworks in 2050, identify issues to be considered for the next vision, and examine the direction of efforts to be made. In particular, the ideal state of the city's waterworks in 2050 and the measures that will be required in the future were designed from the perspective of future generations. This practice showed that the introduction of a method of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs) increased awareness of crisis and the need for quick response, and also changed policy priorities and the direction of measures. In addition, in FY2022, Suita City Waterworks Department and Hara Laboratory, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University jointly conducted a questionnaire survey of 2,000 households in the city (randomly selected) to verify the significance and effectiveness of introducing the mechanism of IFGs in relation to awareness of issues and measures for water infrastructure maintenance and management.
　In collaboration with local governments and others, this Research Base is also pioneering an assessment method to evaluate sustainable infrastructure maintenance and management by introducing Future Design.

　The Environmental Policy Office of Suita City conducted a policy formulation practice (training) for the realization of carbon neutrality in 2050 based on Future Design with the participation of city employees. The participants described the social vision of Suita City in 2050 from the standpoints of current generation (current city employees) and the Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs) in 2050, respectively, and identified and selected measures to be implemented by 2030. The measures selected from the perspective of the IFGs showed various changes in content and quality compared to those proposed from the perspective of current employees, indicating the effectiveness of adopting IFGs.
　In implementing this practice, information from the scenario evaluation of the diffusion of renewable energy technologies was also used. First, a team of researchers constructed multiple scenarios in which promising technologies such as electric vehicles (EV), photovoltaic (PV), and V2H spread to Suita City in 2030 and 2050, and conducted simulations using models to evaluate the effects of technology diffusion on five indicators, including cost reduction and carbon emission reduction. The results were used to evaluate the effects of technology diffusion on five indicators, including cost reductions and carbon reductions. One of the features of this Future Design practice is that carbon neutral policies were examined based on such objective data and information on future projections of technology diffusion.

　In the public policy field, the practice of evaluating administrative plans from the perspective of sustainability and long-term perspectives and improving plans is an important issue. Future Design could be applied to assess the impact of current plans and policies on future generations in a more concrete and multifaceted way.
　From August to November 2023, the town of Yahaba applied Future Design to implement an evaluation for the revision of urban planning master plan and identify measures to improve the master plan. A total of 21 staff members from nine departments and offices of the town hall participated in the practice and were divided into four groups - two groups of the current generation and two groups of the Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs) - to evaluate the master plan from the perspective of the current and future generations. In the first three sessions, the four groups separately evaluated the master plan and proposed measures, and in the fourth and final session, one group each from the current and IFGs paired up to form a consensus and propose five specific measures to improve the plan. A particular feature of this practice was that the discussion focused on trade-off issues that are difficult to resolve only from the perspective of current generation, such as the issue of disparities between urban development and rural areas, and that the assessment was carried out by incorporating the perspectives of both the current and future generations.
　As a result of the practice, differences between the current generation group and the future generation group were clearly observed in terms of the focus of urban planning issues, issue setting, evaluation results and policy proposals. In particular, the IFGs tended to describe a more concrete image of the future society of the town in 2050 and to focus on essential issues for the town, such as the potential risk of the problem of labour shortage in rural areas.
　This initiative is the first example of Future Design being applied to the assessment of an administrative plan, and proposes a new method of assessing administrative plans from the viewpoint of sustainability. By incorporating the perspectives of both current and future generations in the assessment, it could also lead to the development of a new method for the assessment of administrative planning and policy-making that explicitly incorporates a time horizon.

　The 19th "Kinki Regional Committees on Energy Supply and Demand and Prevention of Global Warming" held on December 19, 2023, was attended by the Kinki regional government, local governments, energy professionals, universities, and research institutions. The participants exchanged opinions applying Future Design under the theme of carbon neutrality in 2050. They discussed the lifestyle policies that individuals and organizations should realize within 10 years from the standpoint of the Imaginary Future Generations, in addition to the images of society in 2050. In particular, the opinions of the Imaginary Future Generations included not only those related to energy and global warming countermeasures, but also a variety of other issues, such as the realization of a three-hour workday in line with technological development and the implementation of environmental conservation activities using surplus time.
　In order to realize a carbon-neutral society, it is necessary for diverse stakeholders to work together to build consensus on the measures and paths to be taken in the future. Future Design may help promote discussion and consensus building among diverse stakeholders by incorporating the perspectives of future generations, and related research and practices have been initiated.

　In February 2017, 47 students and researchers (teachers) participated in a workshop at Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology to examine the current and future issues of water environment problems in Ho Chi Minh City. The results of the questionnaire survey administrated to participants showed that, compared to when the issues were examined from the perspective of current generation, when examined as Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs),the participants tended to shift their focus from measures that lead to short-term benefits to those that help solve long-term issues, such as the impact of human activities on global environmental problems. The study also suggested that the way in which the visions of future society were envisioned was related to the effectiveness of adopting IFGs. Future Design practices in various countries and regions are also expected to become important.

　This is the first case study of the application of Future Design to technological innovation and R&D strategy in industry. By examining R&D strategies from the perspective of future generations, rather than simply bringing existing technology seeds to market, it is possible to design new directions for innovation. In this practice, employees mainly from the R&D Center of Organo Corporation, a water engineering company, examined the direction of R&D strategy from the perspective of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs). Compared to making decisions by considering the future from the perspective of the present, considering the future from the perspective of IFGs changes the decision criteria when considering R&D, suggesting that it is possible to search for R&D seeds and new directions of innovation by adopting Future Design.

　Future Design is also being applied to the field of technology development and business succession. In this Future Design practice, employees of Teikoku-Ion discussed development and business policies for specific promising technologies owned by the company, as well as how business succession should be handled, from the perspective of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs). By incorporating a method of multifaceted evaluation of measures proposed by employees from the perspective of IFGs, policies and business strategies for the future application and development of technology seeds were designed.The Future Design practice has also resulted in a change in the participating employees' perception of the company and its technology seeds, which has been confirmed to have continued even after the practice.

　The consideration of business proposals and management strategies in companies from a long-term perspective is important in terms of sustainable management and social contribution. Recently, there have been studies of the effects of adopting Future Design in corporate’s new business proposals. In this practice, Future Design was introduced to the discussion and decision-making process among corporate stakeholders on the theme of new business proposals related to food in 2040, and the effects of the introduction of Future Design were verified. In discussions and decision-making from the perspective of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs), it is confirmed that the scope of stakeholders in the business proposal was expanded, with greater emphasis placed on customers and key partners, compared to when the proposal was examined from the perspective of current generation. We also found that proposals from the perspective of IFGs could be valued by managers within the company.

　Employees from five major Japanese companies in different industries and students (undergraduate and graduate students) from Osaka University joined together to discuss and explore the nature, challenges, and needs of a society in 2050 that has achieved resilience to global risks and maintenance of wellbeing and health. In addition, the Causal Loop Diagram, a tool of systems thinking, was used to organize the causal relationships of issue groups from a bird's eye view and extract the essential issues. This is the first practice in which companies from different industries and students jointly examined the problems of the future society through Future Design.
　This case also suggests that a compatible effect of Future Design and systems thinking (Causal Loop Diagram) can be expected.

　At Osaka University, members involved in the development of the concept of Future Design introduced an exercise adoting "Imaginary Future Generations" for the first time in a lecture in 2012. Osaka University now offers lectures on "Future Design" in the Graduate School of Engineering and Cross-Boundary Innovation Program (picture below), where students have the opportunity to learn systematically about the concept, theory, and practice. In 2023, graduate students attending the Cross-Boundary Innovation Program discussed policies for forestry management in view of a society in 2050 from the perspective of Imaginary Future Generations.
　In addition, the "Frontiers of Sustainability Science," an intensive course in English offered in collaboration with Osaka University, the University of Tokyo, Kyoto University, Ibaraki University, and the United Nations University, connects the five universities online and provides lectures and exercises on Future Design together with international students. In academic years 2022 and 2023, students learned the significance of examining issues and measures from the perspective of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs) through group exercises on Future Design toward the realization of carbon neutrality in 2050.

　What kind of society should we build in the future?　What is required to lead a sustainable society? It is becoming increasingly important to cultivate the ability and literacy to discuss these questions together and build consensus. In order to cultivate these abilities, it is necessary to create opportunities to think about the future society from an early stage. Through research and practice, Future Design has been shown to be effective in human resource development and education. In particular, it has been suggested to be effective in gaining new perspectives and fostering sustainable decision-making and judgment. Not only in universities, but also in high school classes and extracurricular activities, group discussions using Future Design are being held on a variety of themes, such as disaster prevention and the future of high schools. Researchers from Osaka University and other universities also provide support, creating opportunities for students to consider various social issues and familiar problems from the perspective of future generations as part of their classes and extracurricular activities.

　Previous Future Design research has suggested that the adoption of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs) can provide a new direction for academic research and technological innovation from a long-term or sustainability perspective. To address this issue, members (faculty and students) of the Interface Science and Technology Area of the Division of Materials and Manufacturing Science, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, in collaboration with the Hara Laboratory of the same Graduate School of Engineering, are working on the themes of "social adoption of hydrothermal technology in the future" (2019, 2020) applying Future Design method. As a result, we found that the relative value of the targeted technologies and the conditions for social implementation change according to the social conditions described from the perspective of IFGs. It is found that it is possible to define new directions for technological innovation.

　In response to various sustainability issues, such as climate change and resource depletion, the goals of carbon neutrality, sustainable resource use, and a circular economy have become vital and urgent international challenges. To achieve the social goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, industrial material manufacturing processes are expected to use electricity instead of fossil fuels for heating. We also expect to see growing use of solar, wind, and other forms of renewable power generation infrastructure, high-capacity lithium-ion batteries and other kinds of secondary batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs) equipped with high-output motors. Further advances in sensing and information processing technologies are also essential for realizing the smart city concept. In response to the growing demands of rare metals, reliable sources and supplies of various rare metal are required.
　Given this background, we aimed to clarify the R&D and technological challenges that may arise in the future by conducting deliberation in which participants (i.e., faculty members and students of the Interface Science and Technology Area of the Division of Materials and Manufacturing Science, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University) examined the supply and demand of rare metals in a future society, along with associated research topics, adopting the method of Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs). It is found from the practice that incorporating the views of IFGs could provide insights into the new directions and requirements of technological innovation for managing rare metal supply and demand.